Cluckin' Good Picks

Kentucky is 3–1 and quietly playing the best football in the SEC East right now, having knocked off then-No. 9 Texas A&M before steamrolling South Alabama. That's a top-25 resume built on a defense that ranks 9th nationally in net adjusted EPA per play — not the kind of unit you want to see across from a struggling offense.

And South Carolina's offense is struggling. LaNorris Sellers, a projected first-round pick, has thrown three interceptions against three touchdowns through SEC play, and the Gamecocks have dropped back-to-back games to Mississippi State and Alabama, the latter by a blowout margin. This is billed as a must-win for South Carolina's playoff hopes — the second of four straight against ranked-caliber opponents — which is exactly the kind of spot where desperate teams find new ways to beat themselves.

And now South Carolina's down a piece on defense, too. Star edge rusher Dylan Stewart — their best pass rusher and one of the faces of the program — is suspended for this one after throwing a punch during the Alabama loss. Losing your best edge rusher is never nothing, but it stings even more when you're trying to snap a two-game slide.

South Carolina's only laying 2.5 at home, and the number's crept to 3 in most places. That's not a ringing endorsement from the market for a team that's lost its last two and is walking in shorthanded.

Take Kentucky +3.

USF is 4–0 for the first time since 2018, and they just proved they can win ugly — trailing Bowling Green 6–0 at the half on the road before D.J. Crowther (143 yards, his second straight 100-yard game) and the offense woke up for two fourth-quarter touchdowns. A team that can absorb a bad half and still find a way is a dangerous team to fade at home.

Temple is 1–3 and just lost to Army 21–17, their first conference game of the year, after blowing a two-point conversion in overtime the week before against Toledo. There are flashes — they can run the ball — but the defense has been leaky all season, and now they're on the road against the only unbeaten team left in the group of five.

USF's favored by 6.5. Given the gap in where these two teams are right now, that number looks more like a discount than a red flag.

Take USF −6.5.

Neither of these teams is world-beating, but one of them is in noticeably worse shape. San Diego State is 1–3, having been outscored 54–33 across losses to UCLA and James Madison, and they're playing through a defensive coordinator change after Rob Aurich left for Nebraska in the offseason. This is also their first season away from the Mountain West after 27 years there, which is its own kind of turbulence.

Texas State is 2–2, and while the Week 1 trip to Texas went about how you'd expect (a 59–7 blowout) and they dropped a close one to UTSA, 31–26, they've shown they can play a competitive, well-coached game against overmatched opponents when the matchup is fair.

This one's on the road and late — a 10:30pm ET kickoff on The CW that most of the country will be asleep for — but a beat-up Aztecs team hosting a middling but functional Bobcats squad is a spot where the better team travels fine.

Take Texas State −4.5.